What Could Be the Shadow Variables Influencing Leave Voters?
With the EU referendum date getting closer and media flooding us with polls and Stay or Leave arguments, I came to wonder if the UK economy as perceived by British people could stir their Brexit feelings. Here are my findings based on YouGov poll and ONS data. Both graphs are to be considered carefully as correlation doesn’t mean causality.
The following graph is interesting because GDP fluctuations seem to correlate with anti EU feelings. When the growth slows down, Brexit vote intentions soar.
I wasn’t totally satisfied with that visualisation as its interpretation is counter-intuitive – both variables could follow a similar curve instead of being in opposition.
I have then selected Consumer Price Inflation instead of GDP growth for my second chart. I have added comments on the timeline to situate each surge and drop in prices.